The Poker Player With 2 Faces!

I wanted to talk a little about the 2 poker players you need to be to succeed.

The first type is they type that understands how to play versus regs. Which encompasses GTO, being aware of our preflop image, minimum defence frequencies, and generally being completely balanced until we pick up on something in their game which is a leak. We then can adjust the equilibrium accordingly.

The second is our ability to play using environmental tendencies, taking advantage of hand reading to dictate sizing and making exploitable bets/calls/bluffs. This is how poker players played prior to the GTO insertion in the industry. Nowadays this is used vs fish.

The reason i feel this topic is interesting is most players still tend to use one too much or maybe even just one.

I have attached a hand from one of my students that i recently reviewed. The interesting thing about this hand is was approached from a completely exploitable point of view, which allowed the student to think about hand reading and combinatrix to work out the amount of combos and then make a decision.

The funny thing about this hand is that we get to similar conclusions using both methods, but the exploitable methods lets him make some calls even when he holds a spade and a straight draw blocker(essentially folds by GTO since we block too many bluffs) if he still believes the amount of bluffs is sufficient.

I do lots of hand breakdowns on this blog and this isn't the purpose here(although i'm happy to do that in future if needs be.) By not being so rigid in his approach to this situation and similar hands he gives himself multiple methods to approach poker play. The benefits are many, by using both he can compare lines and work out which has a higher $EV, he can view hands from different player types clearer and lastly he will always have more room for creativity in his game if and when needs be.

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
$60.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, March 19, 12:05:25 ET 2019
Table 12601362667 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 10: Player10 ( $67.67 USD ) - VPIP: 39, PFR: 9, 3B: 2, AF: 1.5, Hands: 1676
Seat 1: Player1 ( $36.36 USD ) - VPIP: 42, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 1.5, Hands: 250
Seat 3: Player3 ( $9.00 USD ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 1.9, Hands: 156
Seat 5: Hero ( $81.03 USD ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 18, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 2804
Seat 6: Player6 ( $37.42 USD ) - VPIP: 45, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2.0, Hands: 1518
Seat 8: Player8 ( $148.36 USD ) - VPIP: 36, PFR: 23, 3B: 10, AF: 1.2, Hands: 677
Hero posts small blind [$0.30 USD].
Player6 posts big blind [$0.60 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [  8h Qs ]
Player8 folds
Player10 folds
Player1 folds
Player3 calls [$0.60 USD]
Hero calls [$0.30 USD]
Player6 checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2c, Ts, Qh ]
Hero bets [$0.90 USD]
Player6 calls [$0.90 USD]
Player3 calls [$0.90 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
Hero checks
Player6 bets [$2.25 USD]
Player3 calls [$2.25 USD]
Hero calls [$2.25 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
Hero checks
Player6 bets [$5.62 USD]
Player3 folds
Hero calls [$5.62 USD]
Hero wins $20.77 USD from main pot
Player6 shows [9c, 9d ]

I hope you enjoyed the read, and hopefully it gets you thinking differently going forward.

I currently have a couple of spaces for coaching, where not only will i teach you GTO methods but also thinking for yourself and developing environmental and situational reads.

Message me for a free consultation - https://www.facebook.com/BenMachineSmith/

Good Luck :)

To Game Theory, Or Not To Game Theory! An Example In Hand Reading

So this hand came up in an $11 Freezeout on Party.

Now todays game is so deeply entangled in GTO this and GTO that it can cause you to rely on GTO 100% rather than using the hand reading which you relied on prior. Now i am not in anyway saying dont use GTO, or that its not useful, it is very useful when applied. But recognise balancing vs fish will leave money on the table.

So to the hand;

The player in question here, our villain, is loose and passive. You can see player 2's stats below.

Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 1255679 ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 2.2, Hands: 240
Seat 5: Hero ( 2348896 ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2.7, Hands: 10097
Seat 2: Player2 ( 2808829 ) - VPIP: 35, PFR: 3, 3B: 3, AF: 0.7, Hands: 188
Seat 6: Player6 ( 1003773 ) - VPIP: 12, PFR: 12, 3B: 9, AF: 0.0, Hands: 68
Seat 8: Player8 ( 1833280 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 11, AF: 0.0, Hands: 75
Player2 posts small blind [42000].
Hero posts big blind [84000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [  2h 8s ]
Player1 posts ante of [10600].
Hero posts ante of [10600].
Player2 posts ante of [10600].
Player6 posts ante of [10600].
Player8 posts ante of [10600].
Player6 folds
Player8 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [42000]
Hero checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Kc, 4s ]
Player2 checks
Hero bets [88400]
Player2 calls [88400]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
Player2 checks
Hero checks
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
Player2 bets [397800]
Hero?

First question is Preflop; I did even consider iso raising this hand vs said villain as he was passive and folding lots. Not because its the polarised GTO way to play vs limps. But i decided that a 100% Iso strategy was extreme for now.

FLOP

Once we go to the flop i manage to pick up bottom pair without any real kicker. Once villain checks its almost always good for us to bet flop to try and take the pot down now vs this type of villain, as he will have very few c/r bluffs and most stronger hands would lead. We protect the equity we have in the pot and take the lead, but also we define range to start to hand read.

I went for a 40% pot stab, you could even go smaller than this, but until i have a decent grasp on their defence vs a smaller size i settled on a slightly bigger size, which deosnt have to work very often. i am offering myself a very good price on the bet, even if we lose and have 0% equity everytime we are called(which is false.)

The math is 40(my bet size%)/140(size of pot% after my bet) = 28.57% fold equity to break even.

Now if this fish is giving up almost everytime he doesnt have a pair or draw he is folding over 50%(Is a rough estimation without written reads.) So the value in betting here is monumental if you can get away with it. Compare that with how tough it is when almost every turn card is bad if you check back.

What does it mean when he calls? Well his range is mostly non Kx hands(they would bet for the most part) So its made up of some 4x, all of his 2x, some small PPs maybe, flush draws, Some straight draw 65/63 and lastly some slowplays. Remember just cause its unlikely villain has a strong hand doesnt mean its 0, this is a game of imperfect information.

TURN

Now the Tx doesnst really change too much. Sure some Tx spades have gone ahead, but thats it. Now i have 2 choices at this point; i can check back and take my showdown value, or bluff and try and move him off most his pairs that are better and get value from draws. FWIW i dont think betting here is too bad, it would almost certainly make money and is arguable whether its even the better play. But i decided to check back and take my showdown value. Another instance of possibly going against GTO and over bluffing turn by betting all draws and lots of 2x, but notice its fine here.

RIVER

The Ax on the river doesn't complete any draws but brings another overcard, and our villain bets full pot. So what does it mean? and whats the breakdown of combos?

Well this size bet is very polarising and as such he will very rarely have Kx or Tx.

So what makes sense for value? Well he shouldnt really have too many pure Ax, i know he is pretty tight preflop but he is raising most Ax pre, the smaller Ax he may limp. So lets say on average he has A6-A2 in terms of pure Ax. Now he had been playing reasonably fit/fold since i had sat down 50 hands prior. Does he really call very many Ax non paired on the flop? The answer is no probably not very many. So A2,some A4(cant discount he doesnt lead some of them on flop) and A3-A6spades.

So to total the Ax hands(By the way its very reasonable to believe he maybe wouldn't go full pot with any of these Ax hands above) A2= 6 combos, A4= 9 combos(but we will discount some that will lead) and say 6 combos.Plus the 4 Ax spades. So total Ax of 16 plus the slowplays which are 22/44 and 42s so 16+ 5 = 21 combos we lose to.

Learning the combinatrix is just as important as the deductive reasoning. By learning these numbers i can do these on the spot in a lot of situations. But you get a good feel if you study them. Always do the hands you to lose to first as well. If i know its 21 combos i lose to, and i am getting 2/1 on the river, i need to beat 10.5 combos to break even.

What makes sense as a bluff? well at 35 vpip i would suggest he has a lot of flush draws here that may bluff - Q8s-Q2s, J8s-J2s, T8s-T2s, 98s-93s, 76s-73s, 65-63s. Now i understand there is some card removal here, so it comes out to 4+4+4+4+3+2= 21 combos. It would also encompass 65 and 63, even if we say just suited versions that is another 8. So we have a minimum of 29 combos that could bluff.

So 29 possible bluff hands and 10.5 needed. That means he needs to be bluffing here 36% to break even. Most probably lower as we touched upon with the size of his Ax size bets, not all fish would value bet that large with Ax.

Now look at our line, bet flop small, give up turn, scary river. Even the most passive of players will seize this opportunity with our line more than 36%.

** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
Player2 bets [397800]
Hero calls [397800]
Player2 shows [7c, 3s ]
Hero shows [2h, 8s ]
Hero wins 1193400 from main pot

I currently have a couple spaces for coaching, where not only will i teach you GTO methods but also thinking for yourself and developing environmental and situational reads.

Message me for a free consultation - https://www.facebook.com/BenMachineSmith/

Good luck :)

WSOP Final Table, Is Ruzicka Supposed To Go Out Bluffing?!

So firstly i realise it has been ages since i updated my blog, but hey i have been working hard and have a beautiful girlfriend taking up the rest of my time. Hope you enjoy this entry.

Firstly i wanted to talk about the Main Event WSOP final table. For me one of the best in the current era and overall just very entertaining. Congratulations to Qui Nguyen for taking it down!

So lets get into it. Lots of good players in the final 9, i was looking at Josephy,Vayo, Ruzicka, Ruane, Benger and Wong. Very strong 2/3 were players of a high caliber. Josephy with chip lead was of course justified favorite.

I wanted to pick out a talking point that i have seen floating about. The talking point was how people perceived Ruzicka's treble bluff a spewy blow up! Was it? Vayo(who was his opponent in this hand) was playing so snug and tight passive that in a 3 bet pot on Q84 he knew even if he had a Q here he would lay down a big % by the river. Lets imagine Vayo has 88/44/AQ/KQ/QJs/QTs/TT/99 by the river(which seems about right especially against Ruzicka who loves to blast off more than most, very capable) he can call the river with 88/44/AQ but prob folds the rest the way he was playing(KQ is close based upon his mindset.)

So lets count up those combos:

Calling = 88-3 combos, 44-3 combos, AQ-9 combos(Ruzicka had AK here which also plays a part here as it blocks AQ and KQ), lets give half of KQ as im not sure what he does so-4.5 combos. So that is 3+3+9+4.5=19.5 combos.

Folding = KQ-4.5 combos, QJs-3 combos,QTs-3 combos, TT-6 combos and 99-6 combos. So thats 4.5+3+3+6+6= 22.5 combos.

He bets around 70% pot as a bluff on river. 70/170= 41.18% fold is break even. Does he fold more than this? Of course, in fact he folds more than 50% by our math above. Of course in practice Ruane was very short at this point so definitely ICM is in play here. But it still isn't bigger than 25% based upon payouts.

So actually ladies and gents not betting here is a massive mistake.

I will in the coming weeks take a look at the big Q9 hand that everyone wants to look at heads up and give my opinion on it.

Thanks for reading and ill try and update more often :D

Run good to you all!!

Changes Galore!

For those of you that have had a chance to read my "About Me" within the last day or so will have noticed that I have now left my staking agreement and moved on to playing on my own bankroll.

If that wasn't a big enough change I have also changed the games I play from SNGs to MTTs. I feel that the fish to reg ratio at SNGs at the $15 and up mark is prob 60-70% regs(albeit 75% bad regs), whereas the same ratio in MTTs is prob only 35% regs(still 75% bad regs). So after a discussion with some good poker friends of mine I made the decision to change game and go alone.

I managed to get a very good deal where for the next year I will be getting 57% rakeback. This is on a sports betting site so you get a lot of sports betters and random recreational players in my games which obviously adds to my winrate.

I am playing professionally now full time so you can see me at all times of the day grinding away. I am also looking into starting my own private coaching at this moment in time on a no win no fee basis. So I will coach you and you don't pay me until you are in profit.

Here are some graphs:                                   Last 2500 SNGs

I am $5000 in profit over the last 500 MTTs but I have stopped people searching me online and this is a small sample. But if anyone really wants to see this ill show them. I have been staked twice, coached twice and also have over $3500 in profit from 6 max/FR Cash games.

I am offering coaching on NLHE MTTs/SNGs. Contact @TheMachine1984 on twitter for more information.

Anyways back to the grind...

Thanks for reading

It Is All Coming Together!

It has been a while since i have written a blog entry but i have a few things to talk about.

Since my last blog entry in November i feel like a lot has changed for me mentally. Now don't get me wrong i felt like i was playing well before this, but it feels like in the last 2-3 months my game has started to really come together and i feel like big things are only around the corner for me.

Me and Viktor(my sng coach) have studied and gone through a few different things including; Bubble play, playing against good and bad regulars, getting thin value and taking unorthodox lines and i also did some research of my own into HU play and studied some raising, 3 betting and calling 3bet ranges. All of these things combined have sent my confidence to an all time high and although January was a bad month for me variance wise my results are starting to come good at the $15's and the $10's on FT.

I would argue with anybody that does not think confidence has a major part to play in a poker players base rate. When you are confident you give yourself a chance to get into that very allusive often talked about magic mental state called the zone, the more often you are there put quite simply the more money you will make. Next time you are running bad or simply feel that your moral is low just go back to basics, think through lines, how you appear to other plays and how any meta game effects a particular decision and do your best to make the highest EV+ decision. One thing i cant stress enough is you are never gonna play perfect, you cant, i cant, Phil Ivey cant, you are trying to make fewer mistakes than your opponents and that will make you money.

I have been moved up to solely playing $15 SNGs on Pokerstars now by Team Moshman which has not coincidentally coincided with my above statements.

Away from actually playing poker in the last few months i stumbled across a small poker community. Mainly through boredom one day i searched paid to post poker entries into Google and stumbled across Pokerforums.org. It is a small bunch of poker players(it used to be a large community but obviously after Black Friday only a small amount of members remained) that are very close knit and have welcomed me as one of there own. There are some decent players within this community and in my opinion its the best on the web.

Lastly i would like to give a shout out to a mate of mine, Daniel beraducci who is a mental health counselor who specialises in sport performance improvement. If you find you tilt easily or need any help with the mental side of the game he can help you with this and bring your game forward. His skype username is personholisticinnovations. Just tell him machine1984 sent you.

Anyone interested in the poker community i was talking about, you can find it here- http://www.pokerforums.org/ my username there is machine1984.

Thanks for reading

It has been a while since i have written a blog entry and i will try to update more often in future(although it seems you will have take this with a pinch of salt lol).

Anyhow to what has been happening. Here are my results since 27th Aug 2012.

As you can see i am winning over the 543 tourneys i have played. My winrate is 5.7% ROI with an ITM of 39%. I have definitely ran bad over this time even though it looks as if i have ran good, i expect my ITM to be 40%+.

Since my last blog entry i have continued to improve my game and i feel as i write this that i am playing the best poker of my life. I feel more in touch with game flow to the extent that my ROI in my mind has improved by at least 2% this year.

I have not stopped my improvement as a player and decided to download a HU Ebook as i felt and do still feel this is by far the weakest part of my overall game and this is a leak i am determine to fix so as to improve my winrate by even more.

Lastly I just want to mention the pub league in which i play in. Essentially there are 17 players in the pub i play, the top 2 qualify for a regional final and then there is a 8 man play-off for the final place. I won my league by a long way last season and as such i have received a glass trophy and a place in the regional final on the 4th of December. The regional final will be free for me to enter with a top prize of £500 and a place in a national final with more cash and also Las Vegas holidays. 

Anyone who wants to follow my progress in the current season you can do so here- http://www.redtoothpoker.com/publeague.asp?venue=2928 my name is Ben Smith.

Thanks for reading

Been a while!

It has been a while since i have written a blog entry and i will try to update more often in future.

Anyhow to what has been happening. Here are my results since Jan 2012.

As you can see i am winning over the 2401 tourneys i have played this year. My winrate is 7.0% ROI with an ITM of 40.7%. I also think these results are probably a bit skewed as i feel that my game since April has improved dramatically.

As far as why has my game improved so dramatically, i have to put that down to my coach who is a high limit SNG pro and has managed to fix a few leaks that i didn't even realise i had which has in turned improved my confidence. I am now a more aggressive player capable of different lines and a balanced range vs regs at my limit. I have also taken time to improve my HU game. The best bit of advice you will hear in the poker community is don't stand still, if you improve even slightly in comparison to the better players at your limit then your edge will become bigger and your ROI will increase.

Work hard and results will come!

Thanks for reading

Making Tough Laydowns

In SNGs preserving a buy in by making a tough decision at the right time can make a big difference to your long term ROI. Here is an example of a tough decision during the early stages of a SNG.

***** Hand History for Game 72971169538 ***** (Poker Stars)

Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, December 29, 03:17:16 ET 2011

Table 491643733 1 (Real Money)

Seat 5 is the button

Seat 1: kermit64 ( $2292.00 USD )

Seat 2: pasteurisi ( $1415.00 USD )

Seat 4: HERO ( $1500.00 USD )

Seat 5: yukon200 ( $2010.00 USD )

Seat 6: Nils>Schrank ( $1248.00 USD )

Seat 7: Stevedr ( $1425.00 USD )

Seat 8: Robit1981 ( $2040.00 USD )

Seat 9: nickriz ( $1570.00 USD )

Nils>Schrank posts small blind [$15.00 USD].

Stevedr posts big blind [$30.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to HERO [ Qd Qh ]

Robit1981 raises [$90.00 USD]

nickriz folds

kermit64 folds

pasteurisi folds

HERO raises [$300.00 USD]

yukon200 folds

Nils>Schrank folds

Stevedr folds

Robit1981 raises [$690.00 USD]

HERO folds

Robit1981 wins $480.00 USD

Robit1981 wins $645.00 USD from main pot

The villain in this hand is a tight reg playing 6/4 over a large sample 7-9 handed. Right lets break the hand down. Villains UTG range here is most probably TT+, AQs+ and i am pretty sure he knows im not 3betting light here and probably puts me on AK/QQ+ yet he 4 bets and on the small side to. His range for this 4bet is very tight and prob looks like AK/QQ+ which means i have 40% equity vs his range. Since he covers me the effective stacks are 1500 and his raise commits me and as such may as well be a shove as i cant call here ever. I would be investing 1200 to win 90+300+45+1200 or 1635, which works out as 1635/1200= 1.3625/1 or 42.33% equity needed to call. As you can see this is a fold even in a cash game, once you add in the factor the you need 60+% equity to go bust early in SNGs this comes out as a clear fold, so next time you think well i have a big hand its just a cooler if he has a bigger hand, think through his range and try to make the most profitable decision.

Thanks for reading

A Week In The Life Of A Poker Player

Its been an interesting week for me. I have worked really hard on improving my Sit and Go game using the outlets available to me.

I have been pounding my brain with ICM calculations which are very brain numbing but i know as well as anyone who plays SNGs does that end game is so important and as such i usually spend 30 Min's everyday studying ICM, although this week was probably nearer to an hour a day.

I have also been having some in depth hand analysis conversations with my coach about different preflop ranges. This week i focused mostly on what ranges to call off a 3bet with once i had opened raised when my stack was around the 11-15bb range.

Lastly this week i have been reading the book i got for my birthday, Collin Moshman's Sit And Go Advanced Strategy, its a very good book and i think it is a very good basis to be profitable at the low blind stages of any SNG $30 and below.

The games have actually been pretty good this week and over 139 SNGs i am running at 14.9% ROI. I would like to think now that my game has come on that i am probably beating the $7 SNGs at 10% ROI. The thing that i have noticed after playing a lot of games at this limit is that it is filled with quite a few tight or semi regular type players and although some of these players are no doubt beating the game i am very confident i am exploiting them more than they are exploiting me.

Lastly i feel my heads up game has come on leaps and bounds over the last 1000 SNGs and is something i would recommend working on to any SNG player. The difference between 1st and 2nd has a large impact on your winrate. If i was to give advice to anyone when they get to the heads up stage its to break down every decision and deduce the optimal play. Remember not every player you play heads up will be the same, which means you should adapt your game accordingly.

If you take anything from reading this it should be that if you work hard results will come. Remember lady luck hangs out with those who practice hardest.

Thanks for reading.

One Hand At A Time

I wanna talk a little about variance and not letting it effect your game. Firstly I'm gonna talk a little about cold decking.

The last 100 SNG's that i have played have been very frustrating and i will tell you why. Most people see variance as having the best hand and it being outdrawn and although i do define this as variance i don't see it as the most frustrating form. To me cold decking is probably worse. This week i have encountered many situations where i know my ranges are very close to perfect but time after time i am running into hands a lot more than i should whilst stealing or catching someone at the top end of there range and just seeing tourney after tourney disappear into the minus column. Now why is this more frustrating? Because you cant see directly that you was ahead and got unlucky the only way you know whether you was unlucky in that situation is if you know the likely outcome of that hand over infinity and how far away the current hand is from that. Another frustrating part of variance like this is it wont be shown in your Holdem Manager or Poker Tracker EV adjusted figures.

As shown here:

I find as I'm sure some of you do as well that if you have a bad poker day, week or month sometimes it makes you feel better to bring HM or PT up and have a look at Ev adjusted winnings so that you can feel good about yourself. Now take a look at the graph above and find the good! Cold decking is sneaky

All this ranting brings me on to my main point ” Playing one hand at a time”

As a poker player you can only control what you do, not what cards are dealt to each player and what cards will come in future or throughout the current hand. So each hand is played on its merit. How is the most profitable way to play this hand? This is answered by past history with the player, hud stats, position, pot size, relative stack size etc. All of this information isn’t effected by any uncontrollable natures of poker and as such you shouldnt change the way you are gonna play a hand just beacause you have been effected by the random elements within the game of poker recently.

I will give two examples of this (SNG):

Last 6 of a SNG: Lag SB(Reg)- stealing sb 80% he opens for standard 2.5bb and you have 10bb holding KTo. Now this is a shove 100%. Now get inside the mind of a player who lost his last 6 coin flips, 3 of his 80% hands and has ran into a hand in the last 3 of 4 SNG's, this can effect his thinking and make him lay this down here.

Same as above but now 4 handed you hold 87s. SB stack is 1400 and you have 2000, blinds 100/200 everyone covers you both. Now this is a fold. But get inside the mind of a player who has cashed his last 10 SNG's and has had 4 1St's in that run. If he is running good he may think a shove is EV+ here when its not.

The Key here is never be results orientated.

Losing Is Actually Winning!

Its an outrageous statement i know but i wanna talk about what i mean and how it applies to poker.

You will often hear quotes along the lines of "You learn more when you lose than you do when you win". This holds very true in poker, probably more so than in other aspects of life.

Say for instance you are a SNG player like me, if you play 200 Sng's in a week and run at 11% roi you feel great. But what are you learning? I know a lot of you will say "well i do study when I'm winning at 11%" I'm not disputing that but can you honestly say that you study as much winning at 11% over 1000 as you would if you was losing at 11% over a 1000? The answer is most probably no and since poker is a long term game and for most of us sad souls a lifetime game the value of learning and becoming better players over our poker careers is worth a lot.

Most people give you a few options if your losing bad as mentioned above.

1) Take a break and come back to the game when you feel you are playing your "A" game again

2) Move down in limits

3) Play through it

Now lets take a look at these options and their merits.

1) Taking a break- This is a valid option and to some that feel that stress building up inside of them is too much for them this is prob best, but what value does it have? When you come back from your break there is a good chance variance will still be there but now you are rustier than you was before and your poker skills if anything have decreased and as such in the long term this is possibly a -EV decision(note this doesn't apply to people who tilt easily and often or people that would use this time purely to study their game. In which case i would advocate that this is the most EV+ option)

2) Move down in limits- Now i see the validity in this option to help you regain your confidence but once again lets ask "what value does it have?" If you are a consistent winner at a particular limit(note once again if you are on very strict bankroll management or cant afford to refill this may be your only option) and you have a bankroll which can easily withstand your current variance stretch then why move down to regain confidence? you know this is a part of poker that will always be there. In the long run if you are a proven winner at limit then moving down is also a -EV$ decision.

These 2 points have led me onto point 3 which is the basis of this blog entry and why i think its beneficial.

3) Play through it- Don't get me wrong I'm not saying that playing through it is the best option for everyone as i have stated above, but think about the benefits you will gain.

Firstly by playing through you will end this particular variance stretch quicker.

Secondly as you keep losing you try harder to win and as such you actively seek leaks in your game and how to fix them.

I see both of these points as EV+. Especially the second point. If by losing 50 buy ins you have filled leaks that will allow you a 0.5% roi increase over your poker career then how much money will that make you over your poker career?!

To conclude you can see that losing can actually have a very positive outcome on your long term game.