Now todays game is so deeply entangled in GTO this and GTO that it can cause you to rely on GTO 100% rather than using the hand reading which you relied on prior. Now i am not in anyway saying dont use GTO, or that its not useful, it is very useful when applied. But recognise balancing vs fish will leave money on the table.
So to the hand;
The player in question here, our villain, is loose and passive. You can see player 2's stats below.
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 1255679 ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 2.2, Hands: 240
Seat 5: Hero ( 2348896 ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2.7, Hands: 10097
Seat 2: Player2 ( 2808829 ) - VPIP: 35, PFR: 3, 3B: 3, AF: 0.7, Hands: 188
Seat 6: Player6 ( 1003773 ) - VPIP: 12, PFR: 12, 3B: 9, AF: 0.0, Hands: 68
Seat 8: Player8 ( 1833280 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 11, AF: 0.0, Hands: 75
Player2 posts small blind [42000].
Hero posts big blind [84000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2h 8s ]
Player1 posts ante of [10600].
Hero posts ante of [10600].
Player2 posts ante of [10600].
Player6 posts ante of [10600].
Player8 posts ante of [10600].
Player6 folds
Player8 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [42000]
Hero checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Kc, 4s ]
Player2 checks
Hero bets [88400]
Player2 calls [88400]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
Player2 checks
Hero checks
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
Player2 bets [397800]
Hero?
First question is Preflop; I did even consider iso raising this hand vs said villain as he was passive and folding lots. Not because its the polarised GTO way to play vs limps. But i decided that a 100% Iso strategy was extreme for now.
FLOP
Once we go to the flop i manage to pick up bottom pair without any real kicker. Once villain checks its almost always good for us to bet flop to try and take the pot down now vs this type of villain, as he will have very few c/r bluffs and most stronger hands would lead. We protect the equity we have in the pot and take the lead, but also we define range to start to hand read.
I went for a 40% pot stab, you could even go smaller than this, but until i have a decent grasp on their defence vs a smaller size i settled on a slightly bigger size, which deosnt have to work very often. i am offering myself a very good price on the bet, even if we lose and have 0% equity everytime we are called(which is false.)
The math is 40(my bet size%)/140(size of pot% after my bet) = 28.57% fold equity to break even.
Now if this fish is giving up almost everytime he doesnt have a pair or draw he is folding over 50%(Is a rough estimation without written reads.) So the value in betting here is monumental if you can get away with it. Compare that with how tough it is when almost every turn card is bad if you check back.
What does it mean when he calls? Well his range is mostly non Kx hands(they would bet for the most part) So its made up of some 4x, all of his 2x, some small PPs maybe, flush draws, Some straight draw 65/63 and lastly some slowplays. Remember just cause its unlikely villain has a strong hand doesnt mean its 0, this is a game of imperfect information.
TURN
Now the Tx doesnst really change too much. Sure some Tx spades have gone ahead, but thats it. Now i have 2 choices at this point; i can check back and take my showdown value, or bluff and try and move him off most his pairs that are better and get value from draws. FWIW i dont think betting here is too bad, it would almost certainly make money and is arguable whether its even the better play. But i decided to check back and take my showdown value. Another instance of possibly going against GTO and over bluffing turn by betting all draws and lots of 2x, but notice its fine here.
RIVER
The Ax on the river doesn't complete any draws but brings another overcard, and our villain bets full pot. So what does it mean? and whats the breakdown of combos?
Well this size bet is very polarising and as such he will very rarely have Kx or Tx.
So what makes sense for value? Well he shouldnt really have too many pure Ax, i know he is pretty tight preflop but he is raising most Ax pre, the smaller Ax he may limp. So lets say on average he has A6-A2 in terms of pure Ax. Now he had been playing reasonably fit/fold since i had sat down 50 hands prior. Does he really call very many Ax non paired on the flop? The answer is no probably not very many. So A2,some A4(cant discount he doesnt lead some of them on flop) and A3-A6spades.
So to total the Ax hands(By the way its very reasonable to believe he maybe wouldn't go full pot with any of these Ax hands above) A2= 6 combos, A4= 9 combos(but we will discount some that will lead) and say 6 combos.Plus the 4 Ax spades. So total Ax of 16 plus the slowplays which are 22/44 and 42s so 16+ 5 = 21 combos we lose to.
Learning the combinatrix is just as important as the deductive reasoning. By learning these numbers i can do these on the spot in a lot of situations. But you get a good feel if you study them. Always do the hands you to lose to first as well. If i know its 21 combos i lose to, and i am getting 2/1 on the river, i need to beat 10.5 combos to break even.
What makes sense as a bluff? well at 35 vpip i would suggest he has a lot of flush draws here that may bluff - Q8s-Q2s, J8s-J2s, T8s-T2s, 98s-93s, 76s-73s, 65-63s. Now i understand there is some card removal here, so it comes out to 4+4+4+4+3+2= 21 combos. It would also encompass 65 and 63, even if we say just suited versions that is another 8. So we have a minimum of 29 combos that could bluff.
So 29 possible bluff hands and 10.5 needed. That means he needs to be bluffing here 36% to break even. Most probably lower as we touched upon with the size of his Ax size bets, not all fish would value bet that large with Ax.
Now look at our line, bet flop small, give up turn, scary river. Even the most passive of players will seize this opportunity with our line more than 36%.
** Dealing River ** [ Ad ]
Player2 bets [397800]
Hero calls [397800]
Player2 shows [7c, 3s ]
Hero shows [2h, 8s ]
Hero wins 1193400 from main pot
I currently have a couple spaces for coaching, where not only will i teach you GTO methods but also thinking for yourself and developing environmental and situational reads.
Message me for a free consultation - https://www.facebook.com/BenMachineSmith/
Good luck :)
