So firstly i realise it has been ages since i updated my blog, but hey i have been working hard and have a beautiful girlfriend taking up the rest of my time. Hope you enjoy this entry.
Firstly i wanted to talk about the Main Event WSOP final table. For me one of the best in the current era and overall just very entertaining. Congratulations to Qui Nguyen for taking it down!
So lets get into it. Lots of good players in the final 9, i was looking at Josephy,Vayo, Ruzicka, Ruane, Benger and Wong. Very strong 2/3 were players of a high caliber. Josephy with chip lead was of course justified favorite.
I wanted to pick out a talking point that i have seen floating about. The talking point was how people perceived Ruzicka's treble bluff a spewy blow up! Was it? Vayo(who was his opponent in this hand) was playing so snug and tight passive that in a 3 bet pot on Q84 he knew even if he had a Q here he would lay down a big % by the river. Lets imagine Vayo has 88/44/AQ/KQ/QJs/QTs/TT/99 by the river(which seems about right especially against Ruzicka who loves to blast off more than most, very capable) he can call the river with 88/44/AQ but prob folds the rest the way he was playing(KQ is close based upon his mindset.)
So lets count up those combos:
Calling = 88-3 combos, 44-3 combos, AQ-9 combos(Ruzicka had AK here which also plays a part here as it blocks AQ and KQ), lets give half of KQ as im not sure what he does so-4.5 combos. So that is 3+3+9+4.5=19.5 combos.
Folding = KQ-4.5 combos, QJs-3 combos,QTs-3 combos, TT-6 combos and 99-6 combos. So thats 4.5+3+3+6+6= 22.5 combos.
He bets around 70% pot as a bluff on river. 70/170= 41.18% fold is break even. Does he fold more than this? Of course, in fact he folds more than 50% by our math above. Of course in practice Ruane was very short at this point so definitely ICM is in play here. But it still isn't bigger than 25% based upon payouts.
So actually ladies and gents not betting here is a massive mistake.
I will in the coming weeks take a look at the big Q9 hand that everyone wants to look at heads up and give my opinion on it.
Thanks for reading and ill try and update more often :D
Run good to you all!!